Hurricane Frances
Forecast Advisory 49
000
WTNT31 KNHC 060228
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004
...FRANCES REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL STORM...IS MOVING OFFSHORE TO
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST
OF FLORIDA FROM ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO DESTIN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST
OF FLORIDA FROM SOUTH OF ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO OCEAN REEF INCLUDING
ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...FLORIDA BAY AND THE DRY TORTUGAS...AND
FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER
INLET NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANCES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST OR ABOUT
25 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF TAMPA FLORIDA.
FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH AND A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
CENTER OF FRANCES IS AT THE GULF COAST AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
THE WATERS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONAY AND THEN
MOVE INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THERE IS
CHANCE THAT FRANCES COULD AGAIN BECOME A HURRICANE.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH FLORIDA EAST COAST BUT
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE ON MONDAY. ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST...STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE PATH OF FRANCES. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF UP TO 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH
OF THE STORM.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...
ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ALONG
FRANCES WIDE PATH.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA.
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...28.3 N... 82.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 976 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
$$
000
WTNT34 KNHC 060240
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SUN SEP 05 2004
...CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IVAN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRENADA AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IVAN.
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 10.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 49.4 WEST OR ABOUT 700
MILES...1130 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS.
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IVAN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AND IS CURRENTLY A
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... IF THIS INTENSIFICATION PHASE CONTINUES...
IVAN WILL APPROACH CATEGORY 5 STATUS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...10.8 N... 49.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
AST.
FORECASTER JARVINEN/HENNON
$$
