Hurricane Frances

Forecast Advisory 51

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000
WTNT31 KNHC 061424
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 51
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 06 2004

...LARGE CIRCULATION CENTER OF FRANCES EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATER TODAY...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE SUWANEE RIVER TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND
AND FROM WEST OF INDIAN PASS TO DESTIN.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SUWANEE RIVER TO
INDIAN PASS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SUWANEE RIVER TO
ANNA MARIA ISLAND AND FROM INDIAN PASS TO DESTIN.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF ANNA
MARIA ISLAND HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE GEORGIA COAST HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE LARGE CIRCULATION CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE
84.0 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF FRANCES SHOULD MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ONLY A
SMALL INCREASE IN THE WINDS COULD BRING FRANCES TO HURRICANE STATUS
BEFORE LANDALL

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF CEDAR KEY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO
10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST
GULF COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF CEDAR KEY...ESPECIALLY TO THE
EAST OF THE TRACK.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...
ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE PATH OF FRANCES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN GEORGIA.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...29.5 N... 84.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$



000
WTNT34 KNHC 061444
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST MON SEP 06 2004

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE HEADED FOR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES AND A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR TRINIDAD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TOBAGO.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IVAN.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.4 WEST OR ABOUT 435 MILES...
700 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH ...35 KM/HR...AND A
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ISLANDS IN THE WARNING AREA TOMORROW MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...11.2 N... 53.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 955 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
AST.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$