Hurricane Frances

Forecast Advisory 53

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000
WTNT31 KNHC 070239
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 53
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 06 2004

...FRANCES WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER LAND...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
FOR
THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE SUWANEE RIVER TO ST. MARKS.
COASTAL INTERESTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST OR ABOUT
30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ALBANY GEORGIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH AND
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE DEPRESSION
MOVES OVER LAND.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD
TO THE APALACHEE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RECEDE ON TUESDAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...
ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE PATH OF FRANCES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
FLORIDA...EASTERN GEOGIA...AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...31.3 N... 84.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON FRANCES. FUTURE INFORMATION ON FRANCES CAN BE FOUND IN
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION
CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT31 KWNH...
BEGINNING AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE


$$



000
WTNT34 KNHC 070243
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST MON SEP 06 2004

..DANGEROUS IVAN MAINTAINS INTENSITY...NEARS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...ST. LUCIA...ST.
VINCENT...THE GRENADINES...TOBAGO...AND GRENADA AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TRINIDAD.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IVAN.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 57.2 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES...
335 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH ...33 KM/HR. IVAN IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB...28.44 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED AS IVAN PASSES
THROUGH THE ISLANDS. THIS CAN CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND DANGEROUS
MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...11.2 N... 57.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 963 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
AST.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE/HENNON


$$