Hurricane Ivan

Forecast Advisory 10

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000
WTNT34 KNHC 050232
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SAT SEP 04 2004

...IVAN CONTINUING QUICKLY WESTWARD...NEARING HURRICANE INTENSITY...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 9.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1355
MILES...2175 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IVAN WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE
ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION... 9.4 N... 42.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER BEVEN


$$



000
WTNT31 KNHC 050247
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2004

...LARGE HURRICANE NEARS FLORIDA EAST COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND
BAHAMA...ABACO...BIMIMI AND THE BERRY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER
BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO
FERNANDINA BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...ON THE WEST COAST...FROM ST. MARKS SOUTHWARD AROUND THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE PENNISULA TO JUST SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY ON THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS FROM SOUTH OF
FLORIDA CITY TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR FLORIDA BAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
FROM WEST OF ST. MARKS TO PANAMA CITY.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES
NORTHEAST OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL HAS ALREADY MOVED OVER PORTIONS OF
PALM BEACH...MARTIN AND ST LUCIE COUNTIES. A CONTINUED SLOW
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE INLAND ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRENGTHENING IN THE
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN
STILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE WEST AND SOUTH SIDES OF ISLANDS OF THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL
ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST...STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE PATH OF FRANCES. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST OF FLORIDA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH 20 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...TO NEAR 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
FLORIDA TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...27.1 N... 79.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 960 MB.

OR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM EDT AND 3 AM EDT FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE


$$