Hurricane Ivan
Forecast Advisory 14
000
WTNT31 KNHC 052035
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004
...FRANCES HEADING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...COULD
REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
SOUTHWARD FROM THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO ANNA MARIA
ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO DESTIN.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF
JUPITER INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...ALL WARNINGS FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO
FLORIDA CITY HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...ON THE WEST
COAST...FROM SOUTH OF ANNA MARIA ISLAND SOUTHWARD AROUND THE
PENINSULA TO OCEAN REEF...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...
INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO
ALTAMAHA SOUND.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANCES WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR LATITUDE 28.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES EAST OF TAMPA
FLORIDA.
FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF
FRANCES SHOULD MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER
TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH GUSTS BUT
FRANCES COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IS 975
MB...28.79 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH FLORIDA EAST COAST BUT
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST...STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE PATH OF FRANCES. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST OF FLORIDA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...
TO NEAR 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
FLORIDA TODAY.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...28.0 N... 82.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 975 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
$$
000
WTNT34 KNHC 052036
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SUN SEP 05 2004
...DANGEROUS IVAN MOVING TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR BARBADOS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVAN.
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 10.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.7 WEST OR ABOUT 820
MILES...1320 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS.
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH ...33
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 125 MILES...205 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...10.4 N... 47.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
AST.
FORECASTER PASCH
$$
