Hurricane Ivan
Forecast Advisory 20
000
WTNT34 KNHC 070841
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST TUE SEP 07 2004
...HURRICANE IVAN GETTING STRONGER AND BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT RACES
TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS REPLACED THE
HURRICANE WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ST. VINCENT...
THE GRENADINES...TOBAGO...AND GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TRINIDAD...MARTINIQUE...
AND ST. LUCIA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVAN.
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.5 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES...
230 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 140
MILES...225 KM...EAST OF TOBAGO.
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS RECENTLY REPORTED AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND IVAN WILL LIKELY BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AGAIN LATER
TODAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER PASSES THROUGH THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED AS IVAN PASSES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN LESSER ANTILLES.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...11.4 N... 58.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 965 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST.
FORECASTER STEWART
$$
000
WTNT31 KWNH 070846
TCPAT1
PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 54 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCES
NWS...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...CAMP SPRINGS MD
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 07 2004
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCES MOVING THROUGH EASTERN ALABAMA
AND GEORGIA...FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST...
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...SOUTH
CAROLINA AND MOST OF GEORGIA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF WEST
VIRGINIA...KENTUCKY...ALABAMA... TENNESSEE...NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTH CAROLINA...FLORIDA...AND A BEVY OF COUNTIES IN
GEORGIA. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH
BOX ENCOMPASSING CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTHEASTERN
GEORGIA.
AT 5 AM EDT...09Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH LONGITUDE 85.1 WEST OR 100 MILES
TO THE NORTHWEST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA. FRANCES HAS BEEN MOVING
NORTHWARD AT APPROXIMATELY 10 MPH. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR
20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB
OR 29.89 INCHES.
SELECTED 30 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THRU 2 AM EDT:
LOCATION STORM TOTAL
FLORIDA...
GAINESVILLE 7.66
JACKSONVILLE 7.48
ST. PETERSBURG 5.91
OCALA 5.33
SARASOTA 4.22
TAMPA 4.15
PERRY 3.60
TALLAHASSEE 1.80
ALABAMA...
DOTHAN 0.86
CAIRNS 0.67
TROY 0.53
GEORGIA...
ALMA 5.01
VALDOSTA 4.26
ALBANY 4.13
MACON 3.69
BRUNSWICK 2.93
SAVANNAH 2.04
SOUTH CAROLINA...
PARRIS ISLAND 1.56
CHARLESTOWN 0.79
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4-6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCES.
REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...09Z...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH LONGITUDE 85.1
WEST...MOVEMENT NORTH NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 MPH ...MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB OR 29.89 INCHES.
THE NEXT ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCES WILL BE ISSUED
BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. REFER
TO STATEMENTS ISSUED BY LOCAL WEATHER OFFICES FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM.
SZATANEK
$$
