Hurricane Ivan
Forecast Advisory 23
000
WTNT34 KNHC 080231
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST TUE SEP 07 2004
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS IVAN MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN...NEW HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED...
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DUTCH NETHERLAND
ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
CURACAO. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. VINCENT...
THE GRENADINES...AND GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN
COAST OF VENEZUELA.
AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAVE
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND HAITI ON WEDNESDAY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVAN.
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.3 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES...
175 KM...WEST OF GRENADA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 335 MILES...
540 KM...EAST OF BONAIRE.
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF IVAN NORTH OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER
CLOSE TO THOSE ISLANDS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES IVAN AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF IVAN..
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...12.1 N... 63.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST.
FORECASTER BEVEN
$$
000
WTNT31 KWNH 080248
TCPAT1
PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 57 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCES
NWS...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...CAMP SPRINGS MD
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 07 2004
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCES MOVING VERY SLOWLY THROUGH
GEORGIA...TRACKING TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS...
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS
AND VIRGINIA. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN NEW
YORK...OHIO...PENNSYLVANIA... WEST
VIRGINIA...KENTUCKY...MARYLAND...
VIRGINIA...TENNESSEE... AND NORTH CAROLINA. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT
FOR SOUTH CAROLINA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH BOX FOR NORTHEASTERN GEORGIA... CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA VALID THRU 05Z.
AT 11 PM EDT...03Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCES
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST OR 35
MILES TO THE NORTHEAST OF ATLANTA GEORGIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 998 MB OR 29.47 INCHES. FRANCES IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD
TONIGHT AT APPROXIMATELY 10 MPH.
SELECTED 24 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THRU 8 PM EDT:
LOCATION STORM TOTAL
NORTH CAROLINA...
HIGHLANDS 7.92
CLEAR CREEK 7.75
CONNESTE FALL 7.12
RICH MOUNTAIN 7.04
CATALOOCHEE 5.12
SEVEN DEVILS 4.32
HICKORY 2.91
ASHEVILLE 2.57
SOUTH CAROLINA...
WALHALLA 6.93
SENECA 4.20
BEREA 3.96
WADE HAMPTON 3.56
STARR 1.56
TENNESSEE...
GATLINBURG 2.60
CROSSVILLE 1.29
CHATTANOOGA 1.14
GEORGIA...
MACON 4.64
PEACHTREE CITY 3.72
ATHENS 3.19
ATLANTA 2.93
ALBANY 2.75
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3-6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD.
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...03Z...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB OR 29.47 INCHES.
THE NEXT ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCES WILL BE ISSUED
BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. REFER
TO STATEMENTS ISSUED BY LOCAL WEATHER OFFICES FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM.
SZATANEK
$$
