Hurricane Ivan

Forecast Advisory 24

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000
WTNT34 KNHC 080835
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST WED SEP 08 2004

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS IVAN STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
CURACAO.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN
COAST OF VENEZUELA.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO WESTWARD TO PEDERNALES.

AT 5 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
COAST OF HAITI LATER THIS MORNING.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVAN.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.8 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES...
340 KM...WEST OF GRENADA. THIS ALSO ABOUT 235 MILES...380 KM...
EAST OF BONAIRE.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF IVAN NORTH OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE
CENTER CLOSE TO THOSE ISLANDS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES IVAN AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

THE LOWEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE
HURRICANE HUNTERS IS ESTIMATED TO BE 946 MB...27.94 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF IVAN..

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...12.4 N... 64.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 946 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$



000
WTNT31 KWNH 080849
TCPAT1

PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 58 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCES
NWS...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...CAMP SPRINGS MD
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 08 2004


...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCES TRACKING INTO THE APPALACHIANS...
SERIOUS FLOOD THREAT DEVELOPING...

FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS
AND VIRGINIA. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN NEW
YORK...OHIO...PENNSYLVANIA... WEST
VIRGINIA...KENTUCKY...MARYLAND...
VIRGINIA...TENNESSEE... AND NORTH CAROLINA. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT
FOR SOUTH CAROLINA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH BOX FOR NORTHEASTERN GEORGIA... CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA VALID THRU 11Z.

AT 5 AM EDT...09Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCES
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST OR 50
MILES TO THE NORTH OF ATLANTA GEORGIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 999 MB OR 29.50 INCHES. FRANCES IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD
AT APPROXIMATELY 10 MPH.

SELECTED 30 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THRU 2 AM EDT:

LOCATION STORM TOTAL

NORTH CAROLINA...

CONNESTE FALL 11.22
RICH MOUNTAIN 11.15
HIGHLANDS 10.40
CLEAR CREEK 9.63
SALEM 8.63
CATALOOCHEE 7.72
SEVEN DEVILS 7.60
HENDERSONVILLE 6.96
ASHEVILLE 3.71

SOUTH CAROLINA...

WALHALLA 9.47
SENECA 6.58
BEREA 5.87
WADE HAMPTON 4.12
STARR 2.40

TENNESSEE...

GATLINBURG 4.24
LAKE CITY 1.29
CHATTANOOGA 1.41

GEORGIA...

MACON 5.18
PEACHTREE CITY 4.17
AUGUSTA 3.98
ATHENS 3.66
ATLANTA 3.18
ALBANY 2.75

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4-7 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...09Z...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB OR 29.50 INCHES.

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCES WILL BE ISSUED
BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. REFER
TO STATEMENTS ISSUED BY LOCAL WEATHER OFFICES FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM.

SZATANEK
$$