Hurricane Ivan

Forecast Advisory 31

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000
WTNT31 KWNH 100232
TCPAT1


PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 65 FOR REMNANTS OF FRANCES
NWS...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...CAMP SPRINGS MD
11 PM EDT THU SEP 09 2004


...REMNANTS OF FRANCES TRACKING INTO CANADA...

AT 11 PM EDT...03Z...THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 46.5 NORTH LONGITUDE 71.5 WEST OR 25 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF QUEBEC CITY CANADA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB
OR 29.65 INCHES. FRANCES IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT APPROXIMATELY
24 MPH.

SELECTED 42 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THRU 8 PM EDT:

LOCATION STORM TOTAL

NEW YORK...

WHITE PLAINS 6.40
BUFFALO 3.99
ROCHESTER 3.45

NEW HAMPSHIRE...

MT. WASHINGTON 2.62
PORTSMOUTH 2.23
CONCORD 1.96

MAINE...

FRYEBERG 2.41
SANFORD 2.30
AUGUSTA 1.15

CONNECTICUT...

HARTFORD 2.16
MERIDEN 1.70
OXFORD 1.40

VERMONT...

BURLINGTON 1.57
MONTPELIER 1.43
RUTLAND 1.03

PENNSYLVANIA...

ALTOONA 5.81
ERIE 3.59
DU BOIS 3.20

OHIO...

YOUNGSTOWN 4.41
ZANESVILLE 4.37
AKRON 2.16

VIRGINIA...

ROANOKE 4.39
RICHMOND 2.85
CHARLOTTESVILLE 2.42

WEST VIRGINIA...

PARKERSBURG 4.10
HUNTINGTON 3.82
CHARLESTON 2.61

NEW JERSEY...

TETEBORO 3.28
NEWARK 2.37
ANDOVER 1.13

NORTH CAROLINA...

GREENSBORO 2.31
POPE 1.96
NEW BERN 1.55

MASSACHUSETTS...

TAUNTON 2.09
BEVERELY 1.76
BOSTON 1.13

MARYLAND...

ANDREWS AFB 1.27
BALTIMORE 0.98
HAGERSTOWN 0.90

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...03Z...THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 46.5 NORTH LONGITUDE 71.5 WEST. THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB OR 29.65 INCHES.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES.

LADER

$$





000
WTNT34 KNHC 100232
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST THU SEP 09 2004

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD JAMAICA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO PERDENALES. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM PALENQUE WESTWARD TO BARAHONA.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA FROM
MATANZAS EASTWARD. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA FRIDAY MORNING.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST OR ABOUT 290 MILES...
465 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEARING JAMAICA ON
FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES IVAN AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IVAN COULD
REGAIN CATEGORY 5 STATUS AS IT APPROACHES JAMAICA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 923 MB...27.26 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...15.5 N... 73.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 923 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. IN THE UNITED
STATES...HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS ARE BEING ISSUED BY THE WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICE IN KEY WEST REGARDING EVACUATIONS CURRENTLY IN
PROGRESS.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER BEVEN


$$