Hurricane Ivan
Forecast Advisory 46
000
WTNT31 KNHC 132041
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST MON SEP 13 2004
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES...
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MARTEEN.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD ALSO AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF THE
NORTHEN LESSER ANTILLES TO THE NORTH OF GUADELOUPE.
AT 5 PM AST...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.4 WEST
OR ABOUT 70 MILES... 110 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUADELOUPE.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH
...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY. LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS...POSSIBLY TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...16.0 N... 60.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM AST.
FORECASTER STEWART
$$
000
WTNT34 KNHC 132051
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004
...EYEWALL OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 IVAN NEAR THE
WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO
CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATER TONIGHT.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES...
45 KM...SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR.
HOWEVER...A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TONIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ON THIS TRACK...THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE
WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA IN A FEW HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT REMAIN NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 220 MILES...350 KM. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...HAM RADIO
OPERATORS HAVE REPORTED WIND GUSTS ABOVE 70 MPH WITH TREES AND
POWERLINES DOWN IN THE PINAR DEL RIO PROVINCE OF WESTERN CUBA.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS 912 MB...26.93 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 25 FEET...LOCALLY HIGHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL...IF IT DOES MAKE LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
THE PATH OF IVAN.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...21.3 N... 84.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 912 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
$$
