Hurricane Ivan

Forecast Advisory 53

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000
WTNT34 KNHC 151439
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 53
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2004

...LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
GULF COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
WEST OF GRAND ISLE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA TO WEST OF GRAND ISLE...AND FROM EAST OF APALACHICOLA TO
YANKEETOWN FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES SOUTH
OF MOBILE ALABAMA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST DURING
THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

IVAN CONTINUES AS AS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON SCALE HURRICANE SCALE...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 135 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT IVAN IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...CATEGORY
THREE OR HIGHER. OCCUPANTS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA CAN EXPECT HIGHER WINDS THAN THOSE
EXPERIENCED AT THE SURFACE...ABOUT ONE SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORY
HIGHER AT THE TOP OF A 30-STORY BUILDING. AFTER LANDFALL...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD TO SPREAD INLAND UP TO 100 MILES NEAR
THE PATH OF THE CENTER.

IVAN IS A LARGE HURRICANE...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 16 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
LESSER...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT SURGE VALUES WILL BE EXPERIENCED
WHERE ONSHORE FLOW OCCURS WEST OF THE CENTER.

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE LIKELY
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH IVAN.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN
SOUTHERN ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...27.3 N... 88.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


$$



000
WTNT31 KNHC 151441
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST WED SEP 15 2004

...JEANNE APPROACHING PUERTO RICO...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS
ISSUED...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
EASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABREERA SOUTHWARD TO
ISLA SAONA. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ARE EXTENDED WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF CABRERA TO PUERTO PLATA. A HURRICANE
WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO SANTO
DOMINGO.

AT 11 AM AST...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JEANNE.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST OR ABOUT
45 MILES... 75 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. THIS
IS ALSO ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM WEST OF ST. CROIX.

JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF JEANNE OVER PUERTO RICO
LATER TODAY AND NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS...POSSIBLY SUSTAINED AT HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND JEANNE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE
BEFORE REACHING PUERTO RICO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THERE WAS AN UNOFFICIAL REPORT FROM ST.
CROIX OF A WIND GUST OF 96 MPH AT AN ELEVATION OF 300 FEET DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF JEANNE. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. ST. CROIX
HAS REPORTED 7 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR DURING JEANNE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS TODAY.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...17.8 N... 65.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER BEVEN


$$