Hurricane Ivan
Forecast Advisory 54
000
WTNT31 KNHC 152033
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST WED SEP 15 2004
...JEANNE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS PUERTO RICO...NEW
HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...AND ALONG
THE EASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABRERA SOUTHWARD
TO ISLA SAONA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF CABRERA
TO PUERTO PLATA...AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO SANTO DOMINGO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL
WARNINGS FOR ST. KITTS AND NEVIS.
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE U. S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JEANNE.
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.5 WEST OR OVER
PUERTO RICO ABOUT 25 MILES... 40 KM...WEST OF SAN JUAN.
JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH
...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FORECAST MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OFF
THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT...AND NEAR THE
NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE ONCE THE CENTER OF JEANNE
REACHES THE ALTANTIC...AND IT COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER
TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. SAN JUAN RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST
OF 71 MPH...114 KM/HR.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF JEANNE. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO HAVE REPORTED 7 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR IN ASSOCIATION
WITH JEANNE.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS TODAY.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...18.4 N... 66.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM AST.
FORECASTER BEVEN
$$
000
WTNT34 KNHC 152041
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 54
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2004
...CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE IVAN BEARING DOWN ON NORTHERN GULF
COAST...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
WEST OF GRAND ISLE.
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY TO WEST OF GRAND ISLE...AND FROM EAST OF
APALACHICOLA TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA.
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 88.3 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTH
OF THE ALABAMA COASTLINE.
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE VERY LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT IVAN
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...CATEGORY THREE
OR HIGHER. OCCUPANTS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA CAN EXPECT HIGHER WINDS THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED AT THE
SURFACE...ABOUT ONE SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORY HIGHER AT THE TOP OF A
30-STORY BUILDING. AFTER LANDFALL... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD
TO SPREAD INLAND UP TO ABOUT 150 MILES NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 290 MILES. SUSTAINED WINDS AT THE DAUPHIN ISLAND C-MAN STATION
WERE RECENTLY CLOCKED AT 45 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 59 MPH. A BUOY
ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH OF DAUPHIN ISLAND REPORTED 50 FT SEAS.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 933 MB...27.55 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 16 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
LESSER...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT SURGE VALUES WILL BE EXPERIENCED
WHERE ONSHORE FLOW OCCURS WEST OF THE CENTER.
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE LIKELY
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH IVAN.
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.
REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...28.4 N... 88.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 933 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 6 PM CDT AND 8 PM CDT FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
$$
