Hurricane Ivan

Forecast Advisory 55

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000
WTNT34 KNHC 160228
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 55
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2004

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN COMING CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST...STRONG WINDS ALREADY MOVING ONSHORE...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
WEST OF GRAND ISLE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY TO WEST
OF GRAND ISLE...AND FROM EAST OF APALACHICOLA TO YANKEETOWN
FLORIDA.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS CENTERED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES
SOUTH OF THE ALABAMA COASTLINE.

IVAN IS MOVING SLIGHTLY EAST OF NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL REACH THE COAST EARLY ON
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT IVAN
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...CATEGORY THREE
OR HIGHER. OCCUPANTS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA CAN EXPECT HIGHER WINDS THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED AT THE
SURFACE...ABOUT ONE SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORY HIGHER AT THE TOP OF A
30-STORY BUILDING. AFTER LANDFALL... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD
SPREAD INLAND UP TO ABOUT 150 MILES NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER.

PEOPLE ARE STRONGLY ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUT FROM SHELTER DURING
THE CALM CONDITIONS OF THE EYE...AS WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY
WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING WHEN THE EYE PASSES.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 290 MILES. THE DAUPHIN ISLAND C-MAN STATION REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 54 MPH WITH A GUST TO 83 MPH...AND PENSACOLA NAVAL AIR
STATION REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 51 MPH WITH A GUST TO 68 MPH.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 933 MB...27.55 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 16 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
LESSER...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT SURGE VALUES WILL BE EXPERIENCED
WHERE ONSHORE FLOW OCCURS WEST OF THE CENTER.

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE LIKELY
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH IVAN.

TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA...
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND AREA...AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...29.3 N... 88.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 933 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT MIDNIGHT CDT AND 2 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$



000
WTNT31 KNHC 160243
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST WED SEP 15 2004

...JEANNE STILL HUGGING THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF PUERTO RICO...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING WESTWARD TO LA PLATA. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN COASTS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM LA PLATA SOUTHWARD TO ISLA SAONA.

AT 11 PM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM
WEST OF PUERTO PLATA WESTWARD TO MONTE CRISTO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO SANTO
DOMINGO.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...
AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS.

AT 11 PM AST...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
PUERTO RICO. ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JEANNE.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.3 WEST OR ABOUT
20 MILES... 32 KM...WEST OF ISABELA PUERTO RICO.

JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE FORECAST MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF JEANNE NEAR
THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. AFTER THE TROPICAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO...SOME
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND JEANNE COULD
BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN STILL BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH AND WEST COAST OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 9 TO 13 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS PUERTO RICO HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED
MORE THAN 10 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH NAGUABO IN THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE ISLAND HAVING RECEIVED MORE THAN 24 INCHES OF RAINFALL. MANY
RIVERS ON PUERTO RICO ARE ALREADY AT OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...18.5 N... 67.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$