Hurricane Jeanne
Forecast Advisory 3
000
WTNT31 KNHC 140837
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST TUE SEP 14 2004
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN NEARING TROPICAL STORM STATUS...
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD ALSO AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF THE
NORTHEN LESSER ANTILLES TO THE NORTH OF GUADELOUPE.
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST OR ABOUT
190 MILES... 300 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST. CROIX IN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH
...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 50 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A RECENT WIND REPORT FROM THE ISLAND OF DESIRADE WAS 37
MPH FROM THE SSW AND TD-11 SHOULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 7 TO 9 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...16.6 N... 62.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST.
FORECASTER JARVINEN
$$
000
WTNT34 KNHC 140837
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 2004
...POWERFUL HURRICANE IVAN ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO...HAVANA...CITY OF HAVANA...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO BUT WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
LATER TODAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO ST. MARKS FLORIDA...
INCLUDING GREATER NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED BY A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0
WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...135 KM...NORTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA AND 575 MILES... 925 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO COAST.
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IVAN REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES...160 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS
924 MB...27.29 INCHES.
THE STORM SURGE AND WAVES IN CUBA SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH IVAN.
REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...22.6 N... 86.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 924 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
$$
