Hurricane Jeanne
Forecast Advisory 11
000
WTNT34 KNHC 160846
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 56
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2004
...IVAN SPREADING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS INLAND AFTER MAKING LANDFALL
NEAR GULF SHORES ALABAMA...
AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CITY OF NEW
ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FROM
WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY...HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.
ALSO...THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO
GRAND ISLE HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FLORIDA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF APALACHICOLA
TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA AND FOR THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND
ISLE.
AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED INLAND
NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES
NORTHWEST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.
IVAN IS MOVING SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE HURRICANE MOVES
INLAND. OCCUPANTS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA CAN EXPECT HIGHER WINDS THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED AT THE
SURFACE...ABOUT ONE SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORY HIGHER AT THE TOP OF A
30-STORY BUILDING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD SPREAD INLAND UP TO
ABOUT 150 MILES NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290
MILES.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 947 MB...27.96 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 16 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE
STILL OCCURRING NEAR TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MADE
LANDFALL.
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE LIKELY
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH IVAN.
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA...
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND AREA...AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.
REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...30.9 N... 87.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 947 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM
CDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
$$
000
WTNT31 KNHC 160853
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST THU SEP 16 2004
...JEANNE NEARING NORTHEAST COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN
COASTS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM LA PLATA SOUTHWARD TO ISLA
SAONA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT ALONG
THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM WEST OF PUERTO
PLATA WESTWARD TO MONTE CRISTO AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO SANTO DOMINGO.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...
AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS.
AT 5 AM AST...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING
THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JEANNE.
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 68.1 WEST OR ABOUT
10 MILES ...15 KM...EAST OF CABO ENGANO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC OR 270
MILES... 435 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.
JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS JEANNE HUGS THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY MEASURED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 989 MB...29.20 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER THIS MORNING.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE SUBSIDING ALONG THE COASTLINE OF PUERTO
RICO DURING THE DAY.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 9 TO 13 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS PUERTO RICO HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED
MORE THAN A FOOT OF RAIN...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES...WITH NAGUABO IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND HAVING
RECEIVED MORE THAN 20 INCHES OF RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE STILL POSSIBLE
OVER PUERTO RICO. MANY RIVERS ON PUERTO RICO ARE ALREADY AT OR
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...18.8 N... 68.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 992 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST.
FORECASTER JARVINEN
$$
