Hurricane Jeanne

Forecast Advisory 22

---

000
WTNT32 KNHC 190235
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SAT SEP 18 2004

...KARL BECOMES THE FIFTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2004 SEASON...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 41.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1150
MILES...1850 KM... WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. INFRA-RED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT KARL
IS JUST COMPLETING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND A DECREASE IN
WIND SPEED IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS IS FORECAST FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE
BACK TO MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...16.2 N... 41.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 960 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER JARVINEN


$$



000
WTNT31 KNHC 190236
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004

...JEANNE REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...MOVING ERRATICALLY NORTHWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...
MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND
SAN SALVADOR.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JEANNE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.3 WEST OR ABOUT
25 MILES... 40 KM...EAST OF THE EASTERN END OF MAYAGUANA ISLAND IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

JEANNE IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH... 9
KM/HR. WHILE SOME JUMPING AROUND OF THE CENTER IS POSSIBLE AS
JEANNE RE-ORGANIZES...THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT JEANNE REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AT
THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 9 TO 13 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH JEANNE.
CURRENTLY THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE OCCURRING WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...22.4 N... 72.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN


$$