Hurricane Jeanne
Forecast Advisory 38
000
WTNT31 KNHC 230236
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004
...JEANNE EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD ON THURSDAY...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS EARLY THURSDAY. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JEANNE.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.3 WEST OR ABOUT 485 MILES...
785 KM...EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND.
JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE PLANE
WAS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...CAUSED BY LARGE SWELLS GENERATED
BY HURRICANE JEANNE...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST AND THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...25.6 N... 69.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 966 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
$$
000
WTNT32 KNHC 230237
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST WED SEP 22 2004
...KARL STRENGTHENS A LITTLE BUT STILL NO THREAT TO LAND...
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 47.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1285
MILES...2065 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.
KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH ...35
KM/HR...AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM... FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
315 MILES...510 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...30.0 N... 47.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 965 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
$$
000
WTNT34 KNHC 230243
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 68
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT WED SEP 22 2004
...TROPICAL STORM IVAN IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER LOUISIANA
WESTWARD TO SARGENT TEXAS.
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE POORLY-ORGANIZED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.0 WEST OR
ABOUT 295 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER-TEXAS COAST.
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BRINGING THE CENTER NEAR THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY IN
SQUALLS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
WATER LEVELS HAVE BEEN RUNNING .5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. IVAN WILL GENERATE AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE THESE EXISTING WATER LEVELS.
THEREFORE... WATER ELEVATIONS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE PATH OF IVAN.
REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...27.4 N... 90.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM
CDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
$$
000
WTNT33 KNHC 230258
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LISA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST WED SEP 22 2004
...LISA REORGANIZING AS IT MERGES WITH A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE EAST...
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LISA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 41.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1165
MILES...1875 KM... WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
LISA IS NEARLY STATIONARY...HOWEVER IT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...13.2 N... 41.2 W.
MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.
FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA
$$
