Hurricane Jeanne

Forecast Advisory 46

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000
WTNT31 KNHC 250240
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004

...CORE OF HURRICANE JEANNE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM
FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO ST. AUGUSTINE...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...
ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
GEORGIA COASTS FROM NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA
SOUND GEORGIA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND
SAN SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE SUWANEE RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY
AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NORTHWARD
ALONG THE WEST COAST TO THE SUWANEE RIVER...INCLUDING FLORIDA
BAY...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTH OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE.

WE ARE REMINDED THAT YOM KIPPUR...A SOLEMN JEWISH HOLIDAY...WILL
LAST UNTIL SUNDOWN SATURDAY. SOME OF YOUR JEWISH NEIGHBORS IN THE
WATCH AND WARNING AREAS OBSERVING YOM KIPPUR WILL NOT BE
LISTENING TO RADIOS OR WATCHING TV...AND MAY NOT BE AWARE OF THE
HURRICANE SITUATION.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE LARGE EYE
OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 74.9 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES..220 KM...EAST OF GREAT
ABACO ISLAND. THIS ALSO ABOUT 315 MILES...510 KM...EAST OF THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.

JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF JEANNE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
JEANNE HAS THE CHANCE TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL
IN FLORIDA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE
CENTER OF JEANNE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE ABACO ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK OF
JEANNE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA.

TIDES WILL GRADUALLY BE RISING IN THE WARNED AREA DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...CAUSED BY
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE JEANNE...ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST AND THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...26.5 N... 74.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 964 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$



000
WTNT33 KNHC 250242
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST FRI SEP 24 2004

...LISA REMAINS A DEPRESSION...NO THREAT TO LAND...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 44.7 WEST OR ABOUT
1385 MILES...2230 KM... WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LISA COULD REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...14.3 N... 44.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA


$$



000
WTNT34 KWNH 250247
TCPAT4


PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 76 FOR REMNANT LOW OF IVAN
NWS...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...CAMP SPRINGS MD
10 PM CDT FRI SEP 24 2004

...IVAN DOWNGRADED FROM DEPRESSION TO REMNANT LOW...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS UNTIL 12:30 AM CDT.

FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN LOUISIANA AND EASTERN
TEXAS.

AT 10 PM CDT...03Z...THE REMNANT LOW OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6
NORTH LATITUDE AND 94.9 WEST LONGITUDE...OR APPROXIMATELY 35 MILES
EAST OF HUNTSVILLE TEXAS AND MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 7 MPH. WINDS
ARE GENERALLY 10-15 MPH. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1014 MB OR 29.94
INCHES.

SELECTED STORM 36 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 7 PM CDT
FRIDAY.

LOCATION 36 HOUR TOTAL

LOUISIANA...

SHREVPORT 2.80
BARKSDALE AFB 2.66
FORT POLK 2.21
NEW IBERIA 1.38
LAKE CHARLES 1.16
LAFAYETTE 1.11
ENGLAND AFB 0.62
SALT POINT 0.50

TEXAS...
LUFKIN 3.36
LONGVIEW 1.13
BEAUMONT 1.05
NACOGOCHES 0.75

UNOFFICIAL RAINFALL TOTALS FROM COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS IN WESTERN
LOUISIANA AND EASTERN TEXAS INDICATE THAT UP TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN
HAS FALLEN IN ISOLATED AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE REMNANT
LOW SINCE 7 AM CDT FRIDAY.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2-4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT...03Z...POSITION...THE REMNANT LOW OF IVAN
WAS NEAR 30.6 NORTH LATITUDE AND 94.9 WEST LONGITUDE...OR
APPROXIMATELY 35 MILES EAST OF HUNTSVILLE TEXAS AND MOVING SOUTH
AT ABOUT 7 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1014 MB OR 29.94
INCHES.

THE NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION
CENTER FOR THE REMNANT LOW OF IVAN WILL BE AT 4 AM CDT. REFER TO
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY LOCAL WEATHER OFFICES FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
CONCERNING THIS STORM.

HALBACH
$$