Hurricane Adrian

Forecast Advisory 4

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000
WTPZ21 KNHC 181412
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012005
1500Z WED MAY 18 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF EL
SALVADOR...AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF EL
SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 93.5W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 93.5W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 93.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 11.6N 92.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 12.6N 91.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 13.6N 89.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.0N 88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.0N 84.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 21.0N 79.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 24.0N 73.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 93.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

FORECASTER STEWART


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