Hurricane Adrian

Forecast Advisory 11

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000
WTPZ21 KNHC 200239
TCMEP1
HURRICANE ADRIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012005
0300Z FRI MAY 20 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF EL
SALVADOR.

AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA HAS DOWNGRADED THE
HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST
OF GUATEMALA EAST OF SIPICATE TO THE BORDER OF EL SALVADOR...AND
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM SIPICATE WESTWARD TO THE
GUATEMALA-MEXICO BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE GOLFO DE FONSECA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 89.6W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 89.6W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 90.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 14.4N 88.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.0N 86.2W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.7N 84.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.2N 81.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.0N 76.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 25.0N 69.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 89.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

FORECASTER PASCH


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