Tropical Storm Alpha

Forecast Advisory 2

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000
WTNT24 KNHC 222046
TCMAT4
HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005
2100Z SAT OCT 22 2005

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...
INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY.

AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY NORTHWARD TO
STEINHATCHEE RIVER... AND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM
NORTH OF TITUSVILLE NORTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

AT 5 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING
FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR
DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF
MATANZAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 87.1W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
EYE DIAMETER 75 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
50 KT.......120NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT.......175NE 175SE 120SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..375NE 300SE 100SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 87.1W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 87.1W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 21.9N 86.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 23.1N 85.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 125SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 24.9N 83.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...125NE 125SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 125SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 27.8N 79.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...125NE 125SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...200NE 225SE 125SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 38.0N 69.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...125NE 125SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...200NE 225SE 125SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 45.0N 58.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 49.0N 44.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 87.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

FORECASTER KNABB


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000
WTNT25 KNHC 222057
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ALPHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252005
2100Z SAT OCT 22 2005

AT 5 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN COAST. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS NOW IF EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

AT 5 PM EDT...THE BAHAMAS GOVERNMENT HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND
TURKS AND CAICOS.

A TROPICAL STROM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE
OF HAITI.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 68.9W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 68.9W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 68.5W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 18.3N 70.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.8N 71.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 23.6N 71.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 28.5N 70.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 38.0N 61.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 68.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB


$$