Tropical Storm Calvin
Forecast Advisory 4
000
WTPZ23 KNHC 271429
TCMEP3
TROPICAL STORM CALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032005
1500Z MON JUN 27 2005
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA
WESTWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 99.5W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 99.5W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 99.0W
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.3N 100.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 15.9N 102.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 16.5N 104.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.1N 106.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 18.5N 113.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 18.5N 116.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 99.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z
FORECASTER PASCH
$$