Hurricane Dennis

Forecast Advisory 11

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000
WTNT24 KNHC 070839
TCMAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042005
0900Z THU JUL 07 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD...ALL OF
JAMAICA...ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA
FOR THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE
AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...AND HOLGUIN.

THE HURRICANE WARNING AND THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR CUBA WILL LIKELY
BE EXTENDED WESTWARD LATER THIS MORNING.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 74.6W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 95 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 75SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..110NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 74.6W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 74.1W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.1N 76.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.0N 79.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.6N 81.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.5N 83.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.5N 86.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 32.0N 88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 36.1N 90.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 74.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

FORECASTER AVILA


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