Hurricane Emily

Forecast Advisory 3

---

000
WTNT25 KNHC 111443
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
1500Z MON JUL 11 2005


TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 44.7W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 44.7W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 44.2W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 10.4N 46.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 10.8N 48.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 11.5N 52.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 12.2N 55.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 14.0N 61.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 16.5N 67.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 19.0N 73.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.3N 44.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


$$