Hurricane Emily

Forecast Advisory 5

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000
WTNT25 KNHC 120234
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
0300Z TUE JUL 12 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 47.0W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 47.0W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 46.4W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 11.8N 48.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 12.6N 51.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 13.5N 54.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.5N 58.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.8N 64.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 85NE 70SE 70SW 85NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 19.0N 69.5W...NEAR EASTERN HISPANIOLA
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 21.5N 75.5W...NEAR EASTERN CUBA
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 47.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

FORECASTER STEWART


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