Hurricane Emily

Forecast Advisory 8

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000
WTNT25 KNHC 122032
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
2100Z TUE JUL 12 2005

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS BY THEIR RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS...BARBADOS...
GRENADA...THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT AND ST. LUCIA.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ISLAND OF TOBAGO.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR MARTINIQUE.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 52.8W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 52.8W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 52.0W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 11.5N 55.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 12.1N 58.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 13.0N 61.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 14.0N 64.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.0N 71.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 18.0N 77.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 20.0N 83.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 52.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


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