Hurricane Emily

Forecast Advisory 10

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000
WTNT25 KNHC 130831
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
0900Z WED JUL 13 2005

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS DOWNGRADED THE
HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO CUMANA...INCLUDING ISLA
MARGARITA.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TOBAGO...GRENADA...
THE GRENADINES... ST. VINCENT...AND ST. LUCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
TRINIDAD.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 56.3W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 56.3W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 55.4W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 11.6N 58.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 12.4N 61.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.3N 64.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.3N 67.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.0N 74.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 18.0N 80.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 19.5N 86.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 56.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

FORECASTER PASCH

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