Hurricane Emily

Forecast Advisory 12

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000
WTNT25 KNHC 132028
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
2100Z WED JUL 13 2005

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...
TRINIDAD...TOBAGO...GRENADA...THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT...ST.
LUCIA...AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES
WESTWARD TO CUMANA...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND
ARUBA...AND FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO
CARACAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 59.8W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 40SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 90SE 60SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 59.8W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 59.0W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 11.9N 62.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 12.8N 65.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 13.8N 68.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.7N 71.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.5N 78.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 18.5N 84.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 20.0N 89.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 59.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


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