Hurricane Emily

Forecast Advisory 14

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000
WTNT25 KNHC 140832
TCMAT5
HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
0900Z THU JUL 14 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR GRENADA.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS DOWNGRADED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR TRINIDAD AND
TOBAGO ARE DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING ISLA
MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF
CUMANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND
ARUBA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTH
COAST OF HISPANIOLA LATER THIS MORNING.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 62.3W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 40SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 90SE 60SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 62.3W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 61.5W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.0N 64.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.0N 68.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.2N 71.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.4N 75.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.0N 82.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 21.0N 88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 22.5N 92.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 62.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

FORECASTER PASCH


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