Hurricane Emily

Forecast Advisory 16

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000
WTNT25 KNHC 142039
TCMAT5
HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
2100Z THU JUL 14 2005

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER. THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING ISLA
MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF
CUMANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND
ARUBA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 65.9W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 25SW 60NW.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 90SE 60SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 65.9W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 65.0W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.1N 68.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.3N 72.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.5N 75.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.6N 79.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.5N 85.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 21.5N 90.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 23.0N 95.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 65.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


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