Hurricane Emily

Forecast Advisory 19

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000
WTNT25 KNHC 151436
TCMAT5
HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
1500Z FRI JUL 15 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD
TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE ENTIRE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 70.9W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 30SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 70SE 40SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 100SE 75SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 70.9W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 70.1W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.0N 73.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.5N 77.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.0N 80.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.5N 83.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.0N 89.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 25.0N 94.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 26.0N 98.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 70.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

FORECASTER AVILA


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