Hurricane Emily

Forecast Advisory 21

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000
WTNT25 KNHC 160253
TCMAT5
HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
0300Z SAT JUL 16 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD
TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE ENTIRE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 74.2W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 100SE 75SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 74.2W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 73.4W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.8N 76.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.0N 79.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.6N 83.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.1N 86.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.5N 92.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 24.5N 96.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 26.5N 101.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 74.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

FORECASTER KNABB


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