Hurricane Emily

Forecast Advisory 23

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000
WTNT25 KNHC 161431
TCMAT5
HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
1500Z SAT JUL 16 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
CHETUMAL TO CABO CATOCHE INCLUDING THE ISLAS MUJERES.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
TODAY.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE
BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 77.3W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 30SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 125SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 77.3W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 76.5W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.1N 79.7W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 30SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.5N 83.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...135NE 90SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.9N 86.2W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.3N 89.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.5N 94.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...100NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 70SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 25.0N 99.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 26.0N 103.5W...INLAND DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 77.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

FORECASTER BEVEN


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