Hurricane Emily

Forecast Advisory 24

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000
WTNT25 KNHC 162045
TCMAT5
HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
2100Z SAT JUL 16 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WATCH WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO PROGRESO. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
EASTERN AND NORTHERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL
TO PROGRESSO...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE
FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA LATER THIS
EVENING.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 78.8W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 30SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 80SE 50SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 215SE 100SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 78.8W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 78.0W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.7N 81.2W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 30SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 80SE 50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.1N 84.4W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.4N 87.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 21.6N 90.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 23.5N 96.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...100NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 70SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 25.0N 100.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 26.0N 104.5W...INLAND DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 78.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

FORECASTER BEVEN


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