Hurricane Emily

Forecast Advisory 25

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000
WTNT25 KNHC 170246
TCMAT5
HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
0300Z SUN JUL 17 2005

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL AND
THE ISLAS MUJERES. ADDITIONALLY... THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN
EXTENDED WESTWARD AND IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE ON
THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CAMPECHE ON THE
WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA... ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.... AND THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL
AND THE ISLAS MUJERES.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE
FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
CUBA LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 80.3W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 930 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 30SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 80SE 50SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..275NE 215SE 100SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 80.3W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 79.5W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.5N 82.6W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 30SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 80SE 50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.8N 85.8W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.0N 89.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 15SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 25SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 70SE 50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.2N 92.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 24.0N 97.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 60SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 25.0N 101.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 25.0N 105.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 80.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

FORECASTER KNABB


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