Hurricane Emily

Forecast Advisory 27

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000
WTNT25 KNHC 171432
TCMAT5
HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
1500Z SUN JUL 17 2005

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING WESTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TO CAMPECHE. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...THEN WESTWARD
AND SOUTHWARD TO CAMPECHE...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS
MUJERES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS CANCELLED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF EMILY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 83.6W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 25SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 35SE 25SW 60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 80SE 50SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 215SE 100SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 83.6W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 82.8W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.5N 85.9W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 25SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 35SE 25SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 80SE 50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 20.9N 88.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 90NE 35SE 25SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 50SE 40SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.2N 91.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 25SE 25SW 75NW.
34 KT...125NE 80SE 50SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.1N 94.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.
34 KT...125NE 75SE 75SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 24.5N 99.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...125NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 24.5N 104.0W...INLAND DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 83.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

FORECASTER BEVEN


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