Hurricane Emily

Forecast Advisory 28

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000
WTNT25 KNHC 172033
TCMAT5
HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
2100Z SUN JUL 17 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...THEN WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO
CAMPECHE...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AS WELL AS IN
SOUTHERN TEXAS...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 85.2W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 25SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 35SE 25SW 60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 80SE 50SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 200SE 100SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 85.2W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 84.4W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.4N 87.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 25SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 35SE 25SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 80SE 50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 21.8N 90.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 25SE 25SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 80SE 50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 23.0N 93.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.
34 KT...125NE 75SE 75SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 23.9N 95.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.
34 KT...125NE 75SE 75SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 25.0N 100.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 25.5N 105.0W...INLAND DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 85.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

FORECASTER BEVEN


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