Hurricane Emily

Forecast Advisory 31

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000
WTNT25 KNHC 181438
TCMAT5
HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
1500Z MON JUL 18 2005

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO ROJO MEXICO NORTHWARD
TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO CAMPECHE. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 89.6W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 25SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT.......100NE 40SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 125SE 50SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 200SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 89.6W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 88.9W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.8N 91.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 15SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 40SE 25SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 75SE 50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.9N 94.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 25SE 15SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 40SE 25SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 75SE 50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 24.5N 96.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 40SE 40SW 100NW.
34 KT...130NE 75SE 75SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 25.0N 99.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 25.5N 104.6W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 89.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

FORECASTER AVILA


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