Hurricane Fernanda

Forecast Advisory 2

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000
WTPZ21 KNHC 092027
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062005
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
2100Z TUE AUG 09 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 115.8W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 115.8W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 115.2W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 14.3N 117.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.6N 119.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.2N 121.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 15.8N 123.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 16.8N 126.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 17.7N 129.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 18.6N 133.2W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 115.8W

NEXT ADVISORY FROM THE TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10/0300Z.

FORECASTER ROTH


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