Hurricane Fernanda

Forecast Advisory 4

---

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 100844
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062005
0900Z WED AUG 10 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 117.1W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 117.1W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 116.7W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.8N 118.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 16.3N 119.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 16.8N 120.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 17.4N 121.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 18.5N 124.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 18.5N 126.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 18.5N 128.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 117.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


$$