Hurricane Fernanda

Forecast Advisory 5

---

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 101446
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062005
1500Z WED AUG 10 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 118.6W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 118.6W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 118.1W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 16.0N 119.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.4N 121.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.0N 122.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 17.6N 123.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 18.2N 125.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 18.5N 128.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 18.5N 130.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 118.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

FORECASTER STEWART


$$