Hurricane Fernanda

Forecast Advisory 13

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000
WTPZ22 KNHC 121437
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072005
1500Z FRI AUG 12 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 113.3W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 113.3W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 113.0W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 14.3N 114.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 14.5N 115.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.5N 116.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 14.5N 117.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.5N 119.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 14.5N 122.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 15.5N 125.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 113.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

FORECASTER AVILA


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000
WTPZ21 KNHC 121439
TCMEP1
HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062005
1500Z FRI AUG 12 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 123.9W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 123.9W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 123.6W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 18.9N 125.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 19.3N 126.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 19.4N 127.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.1N 129.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.5N 133.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 18.5N 137.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 18.0N 140.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 123.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

FORECASTER SISKO/AVILA


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