Hurricane Fernanda

Forecast Advisory 16

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000
WTPZ21 KNHC 130838
TCMEP1
HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062005
0900Z SAT AUG 13 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 126.4W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 126.4W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 126.0W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 19.3N 127.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.1N 129.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.6N 130.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.0N 132.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.0N 135.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 16.5N 139.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 16.5N 143.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 126.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB


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000
WTPZ22 KNHC 130839
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072005
0900Z SAT AUG 13 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 114.2W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 70SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 114.2W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 114.0W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.3N 114.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 70SE 70SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.2N 115.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 14.7N 116.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.2N 117.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 14.2N 119.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 14.5N 123.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 15.0N 125.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 114.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB


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