Hurricane Fernanda

Forecast Advisory 19

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000
WTPZ22 KNHC 140235
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072005
0300Z SUN AUG 14 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 115.6W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 70SE 70SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 115.6W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 115.4W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.1N 116.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 14.7N 117.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.3N 118.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 14.2N 120.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.3N 122.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 14.5N 125.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 15.0N 127.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 115.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART


$$



000
WTPZ21 KNHC 140236
TCMEP1
HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062005
0300Z SUN AUG 14 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 128.7W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 128.7W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 128.3W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.9N 129.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.4N 131.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.9N 133.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.4N 134.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.4N 138.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 15.5N 141.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 15.0N 144.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 128.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART


$$