Tropical Storm Gamma

Forecast Advisory 15

---

000
WTNT22 KNHC 191431
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272005
1500Z SAT NOV 19 2005

AT 9 AM CST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF BELIZE SOUTH
OF BELIZE CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE MEXICO
BORDER...AND FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO
PUNTA GRUESA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO
TULUM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 85.9W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 85.9W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 85.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.6N 86.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 35SE 35SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.7N 86.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 35SE 35SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.0N 85.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 35SE 35SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.9N 84.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 35SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 27.5N 76.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 85.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

FORECASTER BEVEN


$$