Hurricane Hilary

Forecast Advisory 4

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000
WTPZ23 KNHC 200838
TCMEP3
TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082005
0900Z SAT AUG 20 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 100.6W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 100.6W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 99.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 14.0N 102.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 14.6N 105.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.5N 107.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.4N 109.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 18.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 19.5N 115.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 21.5N 117.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 100.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

FORECASTER STEWART


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