Hurricane Hilary

Forecast Advisory 10

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000
WTPZ23 KNHC 212036
TCMEP3
HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082005
2100Z SUN AUG 21 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 107.8W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT.......140NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..225NE 200SE 175SW 225NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 107.8W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 107.1W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.4N 109.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.4N 111.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.3N 114.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.0N 115.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 21.0N 117.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 35SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 22.0N 119.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 23.5N 122.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 107.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


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