Hurricane Hilary

Forecast Advisory 12

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000
WTPZ23 KNHC 220246
TCMEP3
HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082005
0300Z MON AUG 22 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 109.1W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......240NE 120SE 100SW 175NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 250SE 175SW 225NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 109.1W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 108.4W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.6N 110.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.5N 113.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.1N 114.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.6N 116.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 21.5N 118.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 22.5N 120.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 23.5N 123.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 109.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

FORECASTER KNABB


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