Hurricane Irene

Forecast Advisory 12

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000
WTNT23 KNHC 071431
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082005
1500Z SUN AUG 07 2005


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.8N 53.5W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......105NE 80SE 25SW 25NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 175SE 125SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.8N 53.5W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 54.0W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 36.9N 52.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...105NE 80SE 25SW 25NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 38.1N 50.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 25SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 39.3N 48.8W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 40.2N 46.4W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 41.0N 42.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 75SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 42.0N 38.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 42.5N 35.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.8N 53.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN


$$



000
WTNT24 KNHC 071444
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005
1500Z SUN AUG 07 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 45.5W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 45.5W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 45.0W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.9N 47.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.5N 49.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.1N 50.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.8N 52.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.5N 55.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 27.5N 58.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 31.0N 59.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 45.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


$$