Hurricane Irene

Forecast Advisory 44

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000
WTNT24 KNHC 151430
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005
1500Z MON AUG 15 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 67.2W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 67.2W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 67.8W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 37.4N 65.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 70SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE 100SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 38.5N 62.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 70SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE 100SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 40.0N 59.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 42.0N 56.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 49.0N 46.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 57.0N 38.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.5N 67.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

FORECASTER PASCH


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